The branded merchandise market reached a record $27.7B in 2025, outperforming overall US economic growth for the period. But industry research from September 2025 showed the same market growing just 0.7% against 2.9% inflation — meaning your budget buys less than it did two years ago, even if the number looks bigger. Here's what's actually changing in 2026, and what to do about it.
The headline says record revenue. What does that actually mean for your budget?
North American promo sales reached a record $27.7B in 2025. But industry research from September 2025 found only 0.7% real growth against 2.9% inflation. That gap is the key data point.
In plain terms: vendors sold more dollars' worth of promo products, but buyers received fewer units for the same spend. The record headline is real — but it reflects a market where prices rose faster than volume grew.
56.2% of manufacturers reported shrinking profit margins in the same period, while 70% raised prices in Q2 2025, per the ASI 2025 Counselor State of the Industry. The industry isn't thriving — it's passing costs forward. As a buyer, you're on the receiving end of that math.
Which products are worth buying in 2026 — and which aren't?
The data is clear on this. Items that people carry, wear, or use daily in public generate far more impressions per dollar than items that sit on a desk. And buyers are already shifting their spend accordingly.
How buyer priorities rank against what recipients actually value
| Priority | What most buyers prioritize | What recipients actually respond to |
|---|---|---|
| Price | #1 — 77.2% of buyers rank it first | Recipients rank utility first (78%) |
| Speed of delivery | #2 — 75.4% of buyers | Recipients don't rank it |
| Product innovation | #3 — only 28.1% of buyers | Recipients care about daily usefulness |
| Eco credentials | Last — only 17.5% of buyers | 74% of consumers favor brands that provide them |
Source: Industry research from October 2025 supplier survey; end-consumer comparison from ASI 2026 Global Ad Impressions Study.
The gap between what buyers prioritize and what recipients value is an opportunity. The items with the best impression ROI are not always the cheapest — but they're the ones that generate the most brand exposure per dollar spent.
Top-selling branded tote bags and carry items
Foldable Tote Bag Credit Card Size - Everless
Custom Printed Tote Bag Cotton Canvas Market - 13¾ in
Custom Printed Tote Bag Cotton Tie Dye Candy - 14 x 16 in
Custom Printed Tote Bag Oxford Polyester Food Mat - 8½ x 12¼ in
Custom Printed Tote Bag Cotton Canvas Garden - 8 x 8 x 10 in
Which categories are actually growing — and which are slowing down?
Industry research from January 2026 and ASI's 2026 Ad Impressions data point in the same direction: bags, health products, and tech accessories are gaining buyer attention. Desk accessories, USB drives, and commodity drinkware are showing declining impression value.
Items that go with people — tote bags, branded apparel, charging cables — generate impressions every time they're used. Items that sit in a drawer don't. That's the logic driving the category shift.
At Promolistic, the three fastest-growing quote-request categories in Q1 2026 were:
- Custom tote bags (+34% vs Q1 2025)
- Charging cables (+27%)
- Branded apparel (+19%)
All three align with the broader trend toward carry and utility categories. If you're still defaulting to pens and stress balls, you're likely underperforming on impression value relative to your spend.
Trending branded apparel for 2026 campaigns
Backpack 600D Polycanvas High Line Padded - 11 x 16½ x 5½ in
Backpack 600D Polyester with Padded Straps - 12 x 16 in
Sling Backpack Padded Shoulder Mesh Pocket - 12 x 18 x 6 in
Custom Backpack 600D Polyester with Padded Straps - 12½ x 17 in
Custom Backpack 210D Polyester Budget - 12 x 16 in
What does this mean for your 2026 budget?
The promo market is a two-speed picture. Some vendors and categories are growing fine. Others are squeezed. As a buyer, the squeeze shows up in price volatility, longer lead times on China-sourced items, and inconsistent availability.
Here's what to do:
Lock in pricing where you can. Multi-season pricing agreements protect you from further tariff escalation. Ask your vendor what they can guarantee for 6–12 months.
Diversify by category. If most of your spend goes to China-sourced hard goods, consider shifting some budget to apparel or bags sourced from the US or Mexico. You avoid the tariff exposure and often improve impression value.
Think in impressions, not units. A $15 tote bag that a recipient uses 3 times a week costs less per impression than a $2 pen that sits in a drawer. The industry research hub has more on this.
Ask about domestic alternatives. 42% of Promolistic quote requests in Q1 2026 explicitly asked about domestic-sourced options — up from fewer than 10% in Q1 2025. Buyers are catching on. You can too.
Sources
- PR Newswire — North American Promotional Products Industry Hits Record $27.7 Billion in 2025, 2025. Read release
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — Promo's Slight Growth Faces External Pressures, Jonny Auping, September 24, 2025. Read article
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — What Suppliers Are Hearing From Distributors, Jonny Auping, October 29, 2025. Read article
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — New Year, New-ish Trends, Jonny Auping, January 7, 2026. Read article
- ASI Advertising Specialty Institute — 2025 Counselor State of the Industry, August 2025. Read press release
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — Rising Costs Stunting Industry Growth, May 22, 2025. Read article
- ASI Advertising Specialty Institute — State and Regional Sales Report, June 2025. View report
