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The branded merchandise market hit a record $27.7B in 2025, but real purchasing power contracted and 70% of vendors raised prices. Here's what's shifting in 2026 — categories, pricing, lead times — and what it means for your next order.
The branded merchandise market reached a record $27.7B in 2025, outperforming overall US economic growth for the period. But industry research from September 2025 showed the same market growing just 0.7% against 2.9% inflation — meaning your budget buys less than it did two years ago, even if the number looks bigger. Here's what's actually changing in 2026, and what to do about it.
North American promo sales reached a record $27.7B in 2025. But industry research from September 2025 found only 0.7% real growth against 2.9% inflation. That gap is the key data point.
In plain terms: vendors sold more dollars' worth of promo products, but buyers received fewer units for the same spend. The record headline is real — but it reflects a market where prices rose faster than volume grew.
56.2% of manufacturers reported shrinking profit margins in the same period, while 70% raised prices in Q2 2025, per the ASI 2025 Counselor State of the Industry. The industry isn't thriving — it's passing costs forward. As a buyer, you're on the receiving end of that math.
The data is clear on this. Items that people carry, wear, or use daily in public generate far more impressions per dollar than items that sit on a desk. And buyers are already shifting their spend accordingly.
| Priority | What most buyers prioritize | What recipients actually respond to |
|---|---|---|
| Price | #1 — 77.2% of buyers rank it first | Recipients rank utility first (78%) |
| Speed of delivery | #2 — 75.4% of buyers | Recipients don't rank it |
| Product innovation | #3 — only 28.1% of buyers | Recipients care about daily usefulness |
| Eco credentials | Last — only 17.5% of buyers | 74% of consumers favor brands that provide them |
Source: Industry research from October 2025 supplier survey; end-consumer comparison from ASI 2026 Global Ad Impressions Study.
The gap between what buyers prioritize and what recipients value is an opportunity. The items with the best impression ROI are not always the cheapest — but they're the ones that generate the most brand exposure per dollar spent.
Foldable Tote Bag Credit Card Size - Everless
Promotional 13¾ Cotton Canvas Market Tote
Custom Printed Tote Bag Cotton Tie Dye Candy - 14 x 16 in
Custom Printed Tote Bag Oxford Polyester Food Mat - 8½ x 12¼ in
Custom Printed Tote Bag Cotton Canvas Garden - 8 x 8 x 10 in
Industry research from January 2026 and ASI's 2026 Ad Impressions data point in the same direction: bags, health products, and tech accessories are gaining buyer attention. Desk accessories, USB drives, and commodity drinkware are showing declining impression value.
Items that go with people — tote bags, branded apparel, charging cables — generate impressions every time they're used. Items that sit in a drawer don't. That's the logic driving the category shift.
At Promolistic, the three fastest-growing quote-request categories in Q1 2026 were:
All three align with the broader trend toward carry and utility categories. If you're still defaulting to pens and stress balls, you're likely underperforming on impression value relative to your spend.
The promo market is a two-speed picture. Some vendors and categories are growing fine. Others are squeezed. As a buyer, the squeeze shows up in price volatility, longer lead times on China-sourced items, and inconsistent availability.
Here's what to do:
Lock in pricing where you can. Multi-season pricing agreements protect you from further tariff escalation. Ask your vendor what they can guarantee for 6–12 months.
Diversify by category. If most of your spend goes to China-sourced hard goods, consider shifting some budget to apparel or bags sourced from the US or Mexico. You avoid the tariff exposure and often improve impression value.
Think in impressions, not units. A $15 tote bag that a recipient uses 3 times a week costs less per impression than a $2 pen that sits in a drawer. The industry research hub has more on this.
Ask about domestic alternatives. 42% of Promolistic quote requests in Q1 2026 explicitly asked about domestic-sourced options — up from fewer than 10% in Q1 2025. Buyers are catching on. You can too.
Keep going — pick your next move.
Want the full picture?
Read the complete Industry Research guide →
Industry ResearchBranded merch vs email vs social — ranked by recall, CPM, and longevity. Merch wins recall and lifespan. Email wins CPM at scale. Social wins raw reach.
Industry ResearchPPAI data: promo products = 5–15% of marketing spend for event-heavy mid-market, 2–8% for enterprise. Which segments are increasing and what drives the shift.
Industry ResearchPPAI 2026 spend benchmarks for promotional products: $27.1B U.S. market broken down by industry vertical and company size. Data for your budget deck.
Industry Strategy & AI Editor · 11+ years experience
Jordan covers the structural shifts reshaping the promotional products industry — supplier consolidation, AI adoption, and federal AI policy. Before Promolistic, Jordan wrote on B2B operations + technology for two trade publications and built a research practice analyzing how mid-market operations teams adopt new tools. Their reporting lives at the intersection of supplier strategy and emerging technology.
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