If you've been buying promotional products for more than a few years, you've noticed prices creeping up — sometimes with vague explanations from vendors about "tariff adjustments." The truth is that tariffs on China-made promotional products escalated in four distinct phases between 2018 and 2026, stacking new surcharges on top of old ones. Here's the full timeline and what each phase meant for buyers at the time.
Phase 1 (2018): The first tariffs hit — what it meant for buyers
Two types of tariffs went into effect in early-to-mid 2018. They're separate rules and they affect different products.
The steel and aluminum tariff (March–April 2018). Branded merchandise with metal components — custom coins, metal pens, aluminum drinkware, metal keychains — now carried a 25% surcharge on steel products and 10% on aluminum products. This applied regardless of the country of origin. A stainless tumbler made in Canada carried this tariff just the same as one from China (with some country-specific exemptions).
What it meant for buyers at the time: Metal-substrate promo products — coins, custom medals, aluminum drinkware — got more expensive almost immediately. Vendors absorbed some of the cost at first, but prices began rising through 2018.
The China-specific tariff (July 6, 2018 onward). Starting in July 2018, the US imposed a 25% tariff on China-made goods in several product categories. Most promotional product categories — bags, drinkware, apparel, tech accessories, writing instruments — reached 25% exposure through the escalation cycle that ran from July 2018 through September 2019.
Before 2018, these products entered the US at import rates of 0–8%. After 2019, all of them were at 25%.
What it meant for buyers: Vendors who sourced from China — which was most of them — were suddenly paying 25% more to import goods they'd been bringing in at near-zero rates. Some held prices for a year or two by absorbing the cost. By 2019–2020, most had passed it through.
The full escalation timeline
| Date | What changed | Products affected | Buyer impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2018 | Steel tariff: 25% | Custom coins, steel drinkware, metal pens | Metal promo costs rise immediately |
| April 2018 | Aluminum tariff: 10% | Aluminum drinkware, keychains, accessories | Aluminum-substrate items follow |
| July 2018 | China tariff List 1: 25% | Industrial goods, tech components | Tech accessories first affected |
| August 2018 | China tariff List 2: 25% | Expanded tech, electronics | Broader tech exposure |
| September 2018 | China tariff List 3: 10% (→ 25% in May 2019) | Bags, drinkware, apparel, writing instruments | Most promo categories now at risk |
| September 2019 | China tariff Lists 4A & 4B: up to 15% | Apparel, footwear, consumer goods | Near-universal China coverage |
| July 2020 | USMCA takes effect: 0% | All products from Mexico/Canada qualifying under rules | First clean tariff-free path for buyers |
| February 2026 | IEEPA surcharge: +10% | Most China-origin categories | Stacks on top of existing 25–35% |
Sources: US Trade Representative public records; CBP USMCA guidance; US Department of Commerce Section 232 Proclamations 9704 and 9705; industry research, February 2026.
Phase 2 (2019): Near-universal China tariff coverage
What changed for buyers: By September 2019, nearly every promotional product category from China had hit 25% tariff exposure. The brands buyers had been ordering from for years — same items, same quality — were now carrying import costs that either came out of vendor margins or landed in your quote.
Most vendors chose a mix: absorb some, pass some. By Q4 2019, buyers in active procurement were seeing price increases of 8–15% on China-sourced items. The increase felt gradual, because vendors didn't raise prices immediately when tariffs hit — they adjusted over 12–18 months as old inventory cleared and new inventory came in at the higher cost.
Phase 3 (2020): The USMCA escape route opens
What changed for buyers: On July 1, 2020, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced NAFTA. Products manufactured in Canada or Mexico and meeting rules-of-origin requirements could now enter the US tariff-free — exempted from the China-specific tariffs because they weren't China-made.
This was the first real alternative path for buyers who wanted to avoid the tariff. A branded polo made with a US blank and decorated in Mexico? Zero tariff. A tumbler manufactured in Mexico? Zero tariff. The documentation required: a manufacturer's certificate of origin — something a vendor can provide without government filings or processing delays.
Practical limitation for buyers: Not all product categories had viable USMCA manufacturing. Tech accessories, most hard goods, and complex manufactured items still came almost entirely from China. USMCA helped buyers of bags, apparel, and simple drinkware. It didn't help buyers of power banks or charging cables.
Phase 4 (February 2026): A new surcharge stacks on top
What changed for buyers: In February 2026, the White House used emergency authority to add a new import surcharge on China-origin goods — stacking an additional 10% on top of the existing 25–35% from the 2018–2019 tariff cycle. Read the proclamation here.
Per industry research from February 2026, this pushed combined tariff rates on most China-origin promotional products to approximately 35% for standard categories and 60–70% for metal items. For specific product codes where multiple tariff layers overlapped, rates exceeded 145%.
What it meant for buyers: Vendors who had already been passing through 2018–2019 tariff costs faced another round of cost increases. Products that had stabilized in price after the 2019 escalation started rising again. Industry research tracking from May 2025 — just before the February 2026 surcharge — showed the market had already grown just 0.42% against 2.9% inflation. The additional layer made that squeeze worse.
Drinkware with USMCA-origin options — avoiding the China tariff stack
Silicone Key Ring Tumbler Shaped - 3 in
Tumbler Sling rPET Neoprene 40 oz Pouch - 4 x 9 x 3 in
Glass Tumbler Borosilicate with Silicone Sleeve - 32 oz
Insulated Tumbler Recycled AS Double Wall with Straw - 40 oz
BruMate Togosa Insulated Tumbler Dual Lid System - 50 oz
The key thing about metal items: they have a separate tariff on top
This is the most common point of confusion for buyers ordering metal promotional products.
The steel and aluminum tariffs from 2018 apply based on product composition — not country of origin. A custom coin made in Canada still carries a steel tariff unless a specific country exemption applies. A branded aluminum tumbler from Mexico carries the aluminum tariff unless USMCA exemptions cover it.
For China-origin metal items, all three tariff layers stack: the steel/aluminum tariff (25% or 10%) plus the China-specific tariff (25%) plus the 2026 surcharge (10%). That's how combined rates reach 60–70% on metal goods from China.
If you're ordering custom coins, branded medals, metal pens, or aluminum drinkware, ask your vendor explicitly about the tariff exposure on that specific product — not just on "products from China" in general. The math is different for metal-substrate items.
What this means for how you order today
Eight years of tariff escalation has moved the ratchet only one direction. Every phase since 2018 has been additive. The base layer — the 2018–2019 China-specific tariffs — has no clear path to reversal. The 2026 surcharge was authorized as temporary but similar temporary measures from 2018 are still active.
The practical implication: the 25% Section 301 floor from 2018 is likely permanent for planning purposes. The additional 10% surcharge from 2026 may change, but don't budget around it going away.
Your best path to reducing tariff exposure is sourcing, not waiting for policy change. For bags, apparel, and drinkware, USMCA options from Mexico and Canada carry zero tariff exposure. For tech and metal goods, options are more limited — but worth evaluating for any high-volume repeat category.
For the current-state tariff rate and per-order cost math, see our why your 2026 order costs more explainer. For the specific alternatives available by category, see our how to avoid the China tariff guide.
Branded apparel — US-blank decoration programs, tariff-exempt
Backpack 600D Polycanvas High Line Padded - 11 x 16½ x 5½ in
Backpack 600D Polyester with Padded Straps - 12 x 16 in
Sling Backpack Padded Shoulder Mesh Pocket - 12 x 18 x 6 in
Custom Backpack 600D Polyester with Padded Straps - 12½ x 17 in
Custom Backpack 210D Polyester Budget - 12 x 16 in
Sources
- Office of the US Trade Representative — Section 301 Investigations and Exclusion Process, 2018–2019. Search investigation records (public)
- US Department of Commerce — Presidential Proclamation 9704: Adjusting Imports of Steel, March 8, 2018. Federal Register. (public)
- US Department of Commerce — Presidential Proclamation 9705: Adjusting Imports of Aluminum, April 19, 2018. Federal Register. (public)
- US Customs and Border Protection — USMCA Implementation Guidance, July 2020. Read guidance (public)
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — IEEPA Section 122 Tariffs: What the Promotional Products Industry Needs to Know (R07), February 2026. Per PPAI's publicly available summary at ppai.org/media-hub
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — Trade Policy Challenges for the Promotional Products Industry (R10), February 2026. Per PPAI's publicly available summary at ppai.org/media-hub
- PPAI Promotional Products Association International — Tariffs/AI Path Forward (R19), December 2025. Per PPAI's publicly available summary at ppai.org/media-hub
